Most young players from the 2014-15 rookie class signed their extensions either last year or this summer which gives us a pretty good overview of how team owners and general managers see the future of their draft picks and what characteristics you need to have if you want a well-paid, long-term, and secure job in the NBA.

(Spoiler: First and most importantly, you have to be able to score the ball.)

Financial Hierarchy Among Players

1.) Group A

(5 years / $ 146-160 million)

On the top level there are superstar caliber players, like Joel Embiid or Karl-Anthony Towns who are awesome enough to sign max contracts only after a couple of seasons (or in Embiid’s case only after a handful of healthy minutes) in the NBA. The reason is quite simple: they’re that good.

Even if these players have their own risks and flaws too (Embiid’s health, Towns’ defense/attitude) these deals are no-brainers for a decent GM since the talent-level is so overwhelming that you have to cash these guys out and make sure they are super happy. Hey, hopefully, they are going to be your go-to-guy and the cornerstone of your organization in the next decade.

2.) Group B

(4 years / $ 70-90 million)

On the next level of the pyramid we have players who are good and important pieces of a team, however, you know and, more importantly, they know that they can be replaced sooner or later if they start complaining. Victor Oladipo, Myles Turner, Aaron Gordon, Gary Harris all belong to this category.

[caption id="attachment_130" align="aligncenter" width="678"] Photo: Indiana Sports Coverage[/caption]

While some of them will reach their ceiling pretty fast, others might end up with their own max contract right at their prime following their current deal.              

3.) Group C

(4 years / $ 38-44 million)

The third level of notable young players include guys who have somewhat limited skill set, typically in offense, or couldn’t figure out who they are and what kind of role they can play in a team, but their strengths, e.g. athleticism or work-ethic, make them valuable for a team. Yes, we’re talking about you, Justise Winslow, Larry Nance Jr., and Marcus Smart.

+1. Group D

Sometimes team leaders decide to throw this well-established system, precedents, and rational thinking out of the window and make deals, like:

Zach Lavine (4 years / $ 78 million)

Andrew Wiggins (5 years / $ 146 million)

Devin Booker (5 years / $ 158 million)

Jabari Parker (2 years / $ 40 million)

Oh boy, that’s a lot of money for guys who have zero playoff experience, never played in any meaningful games, can’t play defense, and your only hope is that they are going to be much, much better in the seasons to come. Of course, there are some differences among these contracts as well: for instance, Parker’s second year is a friendly team option, but Wiggins’ max contract… leaves us speechless.

Zach Lavine

Actually, I have a theory of how Gary Forman decided to match Sacramento’s offersheet for Zach Lavine which might not be true, but it would certainly make some sense. One day, Gary’s friends came over to throw a party, grab some nachos with beer, and watch dunk highlights on YouTube:

Friend: Huh, that was nasty!

Gary (smiling proudly): Yeah, I know. He is my boy, Zach.

Friend: Is he coming back next year?

Gary: No, I’m afraid. Stupid Kings offered him $ 80 million.

Friend: And? That’s nothing for this guy, just look at this… shiiiiit! That was even better! (clapping and laughing).

Gary: My so-called scouting “experts” and the so-called “advisors” say that it wouldn’t be rational to pay that much money for a guy who is a minus defender, inconsistent shooter, and prone to injuries… bullshit, I think.

Friend: C’mon…! He is your boy… he is your dude, you just said! A real dunking-machine. Wanna check out the winning dunk from the ‘17 All Star weekend?

Gary: Those stat-geeks know nothing. You know what?

Friend: What?

Gary: I’m going to match the fuck out of that offer sheet, baby!

Jabari Parker

Following the clueless 2016/2017 season, featured by the totally inappropriate and undeserved nickname “the 3 Alphas” (Butler, Wade, Rondo), the Bulls decided to reset their roster and let veterans go in order to set a new direction for the team. In the spirit of this new-wave team building project they have added Dunn, Markkanen, Lavine, and now Jabari Parker to the starting five. Well, what to say… they are not positioning themselves to be a solid defensive team, right?

[caption id="attachment_131" align="aligncenter" width="640"] Source: Journal Posts[/caption]

According to a recent interview, Parker is not too concerned about his main weakness, but unfortunately, there is something he seems to forget... if you suck at defense, it doesn't mean that you're good at offense. Jabari’s efficiency is all right, however, he is totally unable to make plays for his teammates (in his best season he averaged only 2.8 assists / game) and he is far from a good 3-point shooter.

Andrew Wiggins and Devin Booker

Devin Booker’s biggest calling cards are definitely his young age (he’s still only 21) and the fact that he is a hell of a scorer. On the one hand, last year Booker had the best PER (18.1), plus the highest points/game average (24.9) among these guys, and it’s easy to see him flourishing in a well-coached and talented team.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qy9xl-GXfkI

On the other hand, we all know that the simple points per game average on a bad team without any other stats can be as misleading as a laughing-crying emoji in a Facebook chat (I’ve seen many people responding to a message with this emoji and most of them were barely smiling). In today’s era when other teams have “superhero” type of guys, like Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis or Kawhi Leonard as their best players, you need your franchise player to be a force on both ends on the court (khm… Booker’s average of -2.4 DBPM is certainly an impact on the defense, but not really the type you want).

[caption id="attachment_132" align="aligncenter" width="656"]Source: Journal Posts[/caption]

Unlike Booker, Wiggins has been surrounded by drama since he was selected as the Nr. 1 pick in the 2014 draft (and the Cavs immediately shipped him all the way to Minneapolis for Kevin Love). Four years and a questionable max contract later, there are still questions circling around the 23-year-old small forward: 

How is it possible to be such a poor defender when you have so great physical tools, like he does?

Can he ever make the leap and become at least an All-Star?

Does he care about winning at all?

https://twitter.com/DrewShiller/status/1046199651529945088

Well, awkward.   

First of all, these guys are still far from their prime years and currently at the stage of their career when they can quickly learn how to adapt or add new skills to their repertoire every month. Secondly, they are all amazingly gifted athletes who have every chance to drastically improve next seasons (Zach Lavine might have heard the critics as he is currently averaging 32.3 points in the new year) alongside a better coach or more talented teammates. 

However, they like it or not, the stakes are much higher from now on as it is not enough to live up to the hype anymore: general expectations have turned into hefty price tags and huge salaries. If they fail to deliver, a big portion of the team’s salary cap will be locked down for the next 4-5 years as an investement in their potential that might never be fulfilled.